Belgium has weathered the global crisis quite well

English: The logo of the Organisation for Econ...

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) brought some good news and small ray of sunshine in to the economic crisis world. Their message is that moderate recovery is underway in the major advanced economies.

Presenting the Assessment in Paris, OECD Deputy Chief Economist Jorgen Elmeskov said: “The gradual pick-up in momentum in the advanced economies is encouraging but a sustainable recovery is not yet firmly established. Major risks remain. The euro area is still vulnerable to renewed financial markets, banking and sovereign debt tensions. High levels of debt in some emerging markets have increased their vulnerability to financial shocks. And a renewal of brinksmanship over fiscal policy in the US could weaken confidence and trigger new episodes of financial turmoil. ”

He added: “Continued support for demand is still needed to make sure recovery takes hold, and it remains vital that this be complemented by structural reforms to boost growth, rebalance the global economy and avoid a ratcheting-up of structural unemployment.”

Growth is proceeding at encouraging rates in North America, Japan and the UK. The euro area as a whole is out of recession, although output remains weak in a number of countries.

Economic growth in the major advanced economies is expected to continue at a similar pace in the second half of 2013 as in the second quarter.  In the three largest OECD economies, the US, Japan and Germany, activity is expected to expand by about 2 ½ per cent annualised in the third and fourth quarters. This continued slow recovery we can see in the US, Japan and Germany is being undermined by slowing growth in emerging markets, including China, Brazil and India. This is a reversal from recent years, when emerging markets drove global growth as Europe stumbled through a double-dip recession and the US slowly emerged from the wreckage of its housing bubble.

France is forecast to grow by about 1½ per cent annualised in the second half of the year, while in Italy growth is expected to remain mildly negative.

We could see a stop in Belgium in the rising of living standards and were burned by the decrease in consumption. The domestic demand has remained resilient in the face of the global economic slowdown, at a time when most developed nations have been reining in their spending.

evolutie werkloosheid +9,2%

Evolution of unemployment in Flanders

The Interim Economic Assessment says public finances have been improving in most advanced economies, with the exception of Japan, but that fiscal consolidation policies must continue. Such policies need to be better designed, however, to protect the most vulnerable in society, to build public support for necessary structural reforms and to prioritise spending to help get people back to work.

Tackling high unemployment is crucial and must be a key focus of government action, says the OECD. Unemployment rates are around 12 per cent in the euro area and 7½ per cent in the United States, far above pre-crisis levels, and to avoid high rates getting entrenched even as a recovery takes hold governments must implement effective training and activation policies, backed by support for stronger demand.

Flanders, after the sharp decline for 2009 could see a growth in 2010 for the the Flemish Gross domestic Product .  Despite rising economic turmoil in the Autumn by 2011 this growth continued coming to a near stand still in 2012. It goes without saying that this evolution of the economy also affects the Flemish labour market.
At the end of December 2012 the labour-exchange office VDAB counted 210.027 unemployed job-seekers, 9% more than end 2011. The growing uncertainty on the vacancy market evoluated from fall 2011 to a drop in demand in 2012. In the course of 2012 the VDAB published 769.313 vacancies. This is 10% less than 852.928 jobs in 2011.

The OECD expects that the unemployment rate in Belgium in 2014 will rise from 8.6 percent to 8.9 percent. This is shown by new perspective of the organization.

According to the OECD Belgium has weathered the global crisis quite well, notably with a relatively good unemployment performance. However, still-weak domestic demand, rapid fiscal consolidation and slow export market growth will weigh on the economic recovery. In this context, further structural reforms beyond the 2012 measures would boost competitiveness and growth, helping to secure fiscal sustainability in the face of large ageing-related spending pressures.

Reforming tax-benefit systems should improve work incentives while targeted measures are needed for vulnerable groups such as jobless young people outside the training and education system.

The Interim Economic Assessment says public finances have been improving in most advanced economies, with the exception of Japan, but that fiscal consolidation policies must continue. Such policies need to be better designed, however, to protect the most vulnerable in society, to build public support for necessary structural reforms and to prioritise spending to help get people back to work.

Trade-trends-highlight-global-growth-worries-World-trade-volume-Advanced-economies-Emerging-economies_chartbuilder

This chart shows a trend that has economists worried about the pace of economic recovery: the slowing growth of overall worldwide trade, and the drop in exports from emerging markets even as the advanced economies sell more goods abroad.

***

***

+

Please do find to read:

Emerging market consumers drive shift in trade patterns

The big trade switch is on as emerging markets export less

NIS-codes (XLS, 60 Kb)

Country statistical profile: Belgium 2013 +WEB +PDF +XLS +READ

FOD Belgium: Werkgelegenheid, werkloosheid, structuur arbeidsmarkt

+++

 

  • The current state of the global economy, in 3 charts (smartplanet.com)
    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest assessment of the global economy [PDF] is a bit of a mixed bag.

    To put it briefly: Advanced economies are expanding, emerging economies are struggling.

  • Economic growth forecast upgraded (standard.co.uk)
    In its latest assessment of the global economy, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) predicted 1.5% growth in the UK in 2013, up from a forecast of 0.8% issued in May.
    +
    Prime Minister David Cameron’s official spokesman said: “I think this is one of a number of indicators that point in a favourable direction. We would continue to say – and the Chancellor has done – that the Government’s priority is to secure the recovery and keep going with the measures we are taking to deal with the deficit and implement economic reforms. We are going to keep sticking at that, because they are the right things to do.”
  • British economic growth to outpace US, says OECD (thetimes.co.uk)
    The forecast from the Paris-based think-tank was hailed by the Treasury as a further sign that the economy is moving “from rescue to recovery”.
  • As Advanced Economies Grow, Emerging Ones Struggle (abcnews.go.com)
    The organization called on central banks to continue with the loose monetary policies that have been credited with helping economies rebound.
    +
    Already, it said, expectations that the U.S. would ease its monetary stimulus program have caused an increase in long-term market interest rates and started weighing on emerging economies. With unemployment in many parts of the world still high, businesses and consumers still need the low interest rates and easier access to loans that loose monetary policy provides, the report said. A sharp pullback could sink the recovery.
  • UK economy upgraded by OECD (theguardian.com)
    Alongside revising up its forecast for the UK, the OECD used its interim economic assessment to warn that while a moderate recovery is underway in many major economies, global growth remains sluggish, and there are still risks to the upturn.

    The OECD’s economists single out the impact of the Federal Reserve‘s plans to phase out its massive programme of quantitative easing as creating particular problems for some economies.

    “In many emerging economies, loss of domestic activity momentum together with the shift in expectations about the course of monetary policy in the United States and the ensuing rise in global bond yields have led to significant market instability, rising financing costs, capital outflows and currency depreciations,” it said.

  • OECD: Global growth still sluggish (bbc.co.uk)
    The OECD said that activity was expanding in North America, Japan and the UK at “encouraging rates”.

    But it warned that difficulties in emerging economies continued to drag down global growth.
    +

  • OECD says advanced economies growing, not emerging ones (upi.com)
    “The gradual pickup in momentum in the advanced economies is encouraging but a sustainable recovery is not yet firmly established. Major risks remain. The euro area is still vulnerable to renewed financial markets, banking and sovereign debt tensions,” Jorgen Elmeskov, OECD deputy chief economist, said.

  • OECD: Who Needs China? (247wallst.com)
    China will no longer grow at double-digit rates. One probable cause is that its middle class has stopped expanding at earlier rates. This likely is because its manufacturing activity has slowed, as recent PMI data show. Also, wages have not spiked up at past rates, probably because manufacturing growth inside China will not support it. Consumer activity by China’s huge middle class, often numbered at 250 million, will not offset a drop in exports.In the advanced economies, the damage of the recession was historically severe. However, in the eyes of the OECD, America may stage a significant recovery, if it can dodge headwinds. The U.S. deficit has to be counted among these because it has caused a move toward government austerity, which could slow GDP as a whole. On the other side of the argument is ongoing quantitative easing (QE) from the Federal Reserve, which may drop off, but will be a major economic force for at least a year. Unemployment remains too high but continues to come down. European Union improvement also will help export activity.

    Europe has started to escape the darkest economic period of the past eighty years. The recovery has centered in Germany, which because of its size is critical. Even Spain has shown a flicker of improvement. The situations in France and Italy may be relatively bad, but they have not gotten worse in the past month or so. Government policy in Japan, particularly the Bank of Japan, already has begun to shake the nation from its GDP growth doldrums.

  • OECD: Global Economic Recovery Remains Shaky (usnews.com)
    The OECD singled out North America, Japan and the United Kingdom as three areas that are showing promising growth forecasts. The organization forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter, the same rate that the Commerce Department has measured for the second quarter. Japan is slated to fare even better, at 2.6 percent, and the U.K. will grow at 3.7 percent. The group also points to the fact that Europe has moved out of a recession as a promising sign, with France and the U.K. posting improved annual forecasts since the organization’s last assessment.

    However, the OECD warned that the recovery remains fragile.

  • Slowdown in emerging markets to hit global growth: OECD (thehindu.com)
    “One factor has been a rise in global bond yields — triggered in part by an expected scaling back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing — which has fuelled market instability and capital outflows in a number of major emerging economies, such as India and Indonesia.
Advertisements

About Marcus Ampe

Retired dancer, choreographer, choreologist Founder of the Dance impresario office and archive: Danscontact-Dansarchief plus the Association for Bible scholars, the Lifestyle magazines "Stepping Toes" and "From Guestwriters" and creator of the site "Messiah for all". - Gepensioneerd danser, choreograaf, choreoloog. Stichter van Danscontact-Dansarchief plus van de Vereniging voor Bijbelvorsers, de Lifestyle magazines "Stepping Toes" en "From Guestwriters" en maker van de site "Messiah for all".
This entry was posted in Crisis, Economy and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Belgium has weathered the global crisis quite well

  1. Pingback: Inequality, Injustice, Sustainability and the Free World Charter | Marcus' s Space

  2. Pingback: The first question: Why do we live | QuestionTime – Vragenuurtje

  3. Pingback: The first question: Why do we live – Questiontime – Vragenuurtje

Feel free to react - Voel vrij om te reageren

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s