Could Brexit lead to Frexit – or Czexit?

When the referendum on British EU membership was coming from January 2015 to July 2016 the UCL’s hub for research, collaboration and information on Europe and the European Union, the UCL European Institute has been leading on a European Commission funded project to research and debate Britain’s relationship to Europe and organised a series of public debates with academics, analysts, experts, and campaigners. They have produced a range of resources on policy areas and institutional questions, and host a blog Britain & Europe.

The electorate in Britain has become highly critical of the way the European Union, and indeed the European Court of Human Rights, operate.

Seán Hanley, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Central and East European Politics at UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies in London, examines the claims that Brexit may lead to significant political repercussions in other EU member states, including potentially a domino effect of EU referendums. He has a broad interest in the comparative  development of political parties and democracy in Europe, as well as in-depth expertise and a longstanding interest in the politics of the Czech Republic. His major book publication is The New Right in the New Europe: Czech Transformation and Right-Wing Politics.

World GDP (PPP) per capita by country (2015)

Economically it does not seem to be good in Europe and we can see that the recession saw populist parties make electoral inroads in many places and populists gained most strongly where there was a convergence of high impact economic and political crisis, though their growth cannot be primarily read as product of economic crisis. {Populism: Europe’s coat of many colours}

Seán Hanley writes

populist gains seems interpretable more as the expression of a slow burning crisis of governance most marked in Eastern and Southern Europe. The relatively weak (although stronger than average) impact of the Recession in Italy does not prevent the rise of Northern League and the Five Star Movement (M5S) given the country’s ongoing governance and corruption problems which stretch back to the implosion of the traditional Italian party system in mid-1990s and beyond. {Populism: Europe’s coat of many colours}

Yesterday and this morning we had reactions to some of our platforms that the negative reaction against the immigrants would not be from a racist point of view. On the one o’clock news of BBC one inhabitant of Boston (UK) also said she did not vote “Leave” because she would be a racist, but she found those foreigners had to leave her country for practical reasons.

In Sweden and Finland, where economic and political crisis indicators were relatively benign we also see a growing Right-wing site, but there always have been lots of Neo-Nazis and racist groups. But who would have thought Great Britain could become infected with the racist virus?

Populist parties may be outsiders, challengers to political establishment, but we can see that it can well be that several politicians love to be more popular and do not mind jumping on the dissembler cart.

Low-growth and hard times locked in by the Eurocrisis makes a fertile ground for anti other coloured people and not wanting those who have other customs and have an other religion.

National governments trying and failing to be accountable to both their own domestic electorates and EU partner governments worried other member states. Citizens becoming very frustrated also seeing the lots of money wasted in the European Union and they being restricted by many many regulations, dictated from Brussels.

Social pain and dislocation, economic contraction and unemployment are a thorn in the flesh. Many politicians loved to underline those difficulties, the citizens seem to forget would also have been there without them being in the European Union.

Our guestwriter writes

For poorer, economically less robust newer member states EU membership was not only the best option for economic development, but a civilisational choice confirming their ‘Return to Europe’ and status as fully fledged democracies.

Lets hear how he looks at the current position of Great Britain with its Brexit heart and the 27 other member states, who want to continue but have to face some similar opposition as the Britons.

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Preceding articles

Economic crisis danger for the rise of political extremism

Brexit clashes and reasons to consider to bring out the right vote

Backing the wrong horse

Brexit, Nexit, Vlexit and Frexit

Foreign workers and immigrants

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Further reading

1. An Expert’s View of Brexit
2. Brexit; the deed is done, now what?
3. A Midsummer Night’s Scream: Brexit #2
4. Brexit vote and the market – what to do?
5. Why the EU must break the UK
6. Fracking in a post Brexit environment
7. Brexit and the Market Manipulators
8. Brexit will only count if everybody leaves the EU
9. After Brexit -You expected flowers?
10. Choice – the first casualty of Brexit
11. Punky! 29/6/16 -The Double Crasher
12. Bloody Immigrants
13. A letter to our good friends, the British
14. Ignorance is not bliss.
15. Brexit fall out: nervous breakdown?
16. Thoughts on Post Brexit Scotland and NI
17. Brexit will make it harder for UK climate policies, Climate Minister warns
18. Brexit: politics to make your head spin
19. Why Brexit Is Actually Good News For U.S. Trade
20. U.K. Stay Away!
21. Frexit: 61% of French Have Unfavorable View of EU
22. ‘Frexit’ to be major issue in French 2017 presidential campaign
23. The Last Hurrah Brings About The Frexit
24. French Govt Refuses “Frexit” Vote
25. Frexit?
26. Brexit or Nexit – what next?
27. Another referendum to quit the EU? Dutch petition for “Netherlands Exit or Nexit” referendum
28. Dutch party chief Geert Wilders urges ‘Nexit’ referendum for Netherlands
29. Why a Nexit would be good for the Netherlands

UCL EUROPE Blog

Seán Hanley, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Central and East European Politics at UCL, examines the claims that Brexit may lead to significant political repercussions in other EU member states, including potentially a domino effect of EU referendums.

A powerful coalition of forces – ranging from the driest of conservatives to Greens and the radical left and taking in big business,  trade unions, churches and universities – has come together to underline the negative economic, social and political consequences of Brexit.

The UK leaving the EU, it is argued, will not only do lasting damage to the country’s economic prospects and political influence, but could have wider repercussions and might even  cause the Union to start unravelling.

This is not simply a matter of absorbing a mighty economic shock, the complexities of negotiating the terms of Brexit, or the umpredictable effects of a sharply changed balance of forces within a…

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