Going to the end of 2022 having to see an ongoing invasion

It is fair to say that much of the Western population received a shock this past year. Something that no one could have imagined would happen in Europe yet happened.

Though the United States already, in 2021, warned Europe about the possible danger.

The year had not yet started well, when a build-up of Russian troops could be observed around the Russian-Ukrainian border. Russian leader Vladimir Putin continued to claim loud and clear that the West had nothing to fear and that he had no intention of preparing an attack. Europe dared to believe the Russian leader, while America had a lot of disbelief as it watched Russian forces continue to expand around those borders.

As believing Bible students, Christadelphians did hold their hearts, as did they know the Biblical prophecy of how there would come pressure from the king of the south against the king of the north. From the Holy Scriptures, we do know that we shall come closer to the ‘Time of the end‘. We also could come to see the emperor of the Great Russian Empire as chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, announced in the Bible. It is important that we, as Christians, remember how it is written in our Scriptures that the deceiver and great liar was to march from the north to the south, as a prince seemed to have emerged and assumed his role of Gog. We also know how those two kings at first did as if being friends and making arrangements for the ‘partner’ and as such Putin helping his soulmate become the 45th president of the United States of America. We also know this is only the beginning. It is namely prophesied that Russia’s ruler (Gog) at the time of the end shall be thinking an evil thought and decide to invade Israel to take a spoil. Putin understands the value of energy supplies and uses it as a weapon. The Hebrews also know Jeremiah’s sayings and are preparing for an invasion of Israel and also the initial conflict with Hezbollah.

Post-Soviet states in English alphabetical order: 1.  Armenia • 2.  Azerbaijan • 3.  Belarus • 4.  Estonia • 5.  Georgia • 6.  Kazakhstan • 7.  Kyrgyzstan • 8.  Latvia • 9.  Lithuania • 10.  Moldova • 11.  Russia • 12.  Tajikistan • 13.  Turkmenistan • 14.  Ukraine • 15.  Uzbekistan

Even though many were allowed to think that the Cold War was completely over and that we would not experience such a ‘war‘ again, the transition from 2021 to 2022 still brought some tensions around the Eastern European countries, the former Soviet countries and Western European countries.

On February 24, lonely Ukrainian border patrol officers stood guard at Crimean border posts. These posts had marked the unofficial line that had stood between Ukraine and Russia for nearly eight years, since Russian forces had forcibly annexed the peninsula. As the world watched, and Russian bombs began to ring out, Moscow’s army began barreling through the checkpoints.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of neighbouring Ukraine on Feb. 24 shattered decades of relative peace in Europe, but it also scrambled the geopolitical calculus for countries all over the world.

Within minutes of Putin announcing a “special military operation,” Russian troops that had been uncoiling to strike for weeks surged over Ukraine’s border, from all directions. Missile strikes laced into Ukraine’s biggest cities: Odessa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Dnipro.

The Russian Federation daring to attack its neighbour made Finland and Sweden to apply for membership in NATO. Thus, what Putin wanted precisely not to happen ended up happening.

With the obsessive precision of a KGB agent, Putin has learned from his father and childhood, and clearly made plans to restore ‘his’ beloved ‘Soviet State’. Like Lavrov and Medvedev, his frothing pit bulls, he is thinking that in Berlin, Paris, Rome, Washington, and even London the horrified cries will drop an octave, die down, and eventually go silent. And he knows that when that day comes, people will find every reason in the world to look away as he will give Volodymyr Zelensky the last blow and stockade.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has created one of the largest humanitarian crises in Europe’s recent history, with the ongoing war causing increasing numbers of casualties, destruction and displacement within and outside Ukraine‘s borders. Besides the human damage, many animals have died unnecessarily and many works of art have been destroyed and/or stolen by Russian soldiers.

Ukraine’s civilian population is being subjected to shelling and violence, and lots of Ukrainians have been forced from their homes, either within the country or to neighbouring states. On the  6th of  July, already more than 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees had been recorded across Europe, including Poland (1,207,650), but also Germany (867,000), the Czech Republic (388,097), Turkey (145,000) and Italy (141,562). About 90% of them were women and children, who are also at a higher risk of violence and abuse, including human trafficking, smuggling and illegal adoption.

For the men it became troublesome times. Our Brethren in Christ had also the difficulty that we as Christians may not take up arms, but the Ukrainian government had called all men under 60 to take up weapons against the Russian invaders. Even male residents of other countries, such as international students home on winter break when the war started, have been trapped behind the front lines.

On the eve of World War II over 1.5 million Jews lived in what is now Ukraine. Most of Ukraine’s Jews lived in the country’s largest cities, but some, especially elderly ones, lived in smaller cities and scattered impoverished villages. Both Jews and Jeshuaists thus came to live in seclusion and very scattered. In bigger places, like Ukraine’s capital city there could be found about 110,000 Jews and half a dozen active synagogues.

Men pray at a synagogue in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, June 24, 2022. (Cnaan Liphshiz)

Jewish and Jeshuaist communities have largely been built from scratch since the end of communism. Now the ongoing war is crushing the progress that Ukrainian Jews had made since the fall of the Soviet Union. Thousands of Jews have left — including half of the communities in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk), one of the largest industrial cities in Ukraine, but also Uman, which houses the grave of the 18th-century Hasidic Rabbi Nahman of Breslov, which attracts ten of thousands of Hasidic Jews in an annual tribute pilgrimage.
In the administrative center of Vinnytsia Oblast and the largest city in the historic region of Podillia, dozens of Jews would gather for Shabbat services at each of the three synagogues of this city, which had about 3,000 Jews when war broke out.

When the Soviet Union fell and Ukraine became independent in 1991, Jews from across the former Soviet Union who had been prevented from leaving fled out of the region — 1.6 million in total over more than a decade, fled mostly to Israel. Since Jewish education had been prohibited, few who remained had fluency in Jewish prayers or practice.
Over the last three decades, a range of efforts, many fueled by Chabad, had introduced Ukrainian Jews to Judaism and built thriving communities in cities across the country. Concerning Jeshuaists that is an all different matter, because the Ukrainian Orthodox Church with so many heathen practices offsetting Jews to accept Jesus as their Messiah.

A heavily damaged office building and the monument to the military jet in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, after the Russian bombing there, July 14, 2022. (Alexey Furman/Getty Images)

When Vladimir Putin announced on television that he had initiated a “special military operation” and for the second time in the past decade invaded Ukraine, Jews and Jeshuaists remembered their Scriptures and had reason to believe the prophecies in those holy writings had become true. Over 10,000 Russian and Ukrainian troops were killed in the 2014 war, but this time, even when not being targeted, they feared that the toll would be much higher and many Jews would also die. Therefore lots of them chose to leave the country before it was too late.
For many of the elderly experiencing poverty, anxiety and seclusion already worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation was to bring new physical and psychological challenges.

In addition to dozens of synagogues, mikvahs, Jewish schools and kindergartens that have all been opened in the past 30 years, Ukrainian Jewry boasts institutions so large and conspicuous that they have become symbols of its presumed robustness.

Like their fellow countrymen, these Jews and Jeshuaists belong to the strong race that will not give in easily. Even though they have been shelled by Russian missiles several times throughout 2022 and some also saw Russian soldiers do terrible things to their fellow citizens, this does not deter them, and even though they have almost no energy, water and limited food, they continue to carry on with their lives as best they can, while continuing to practise their faith.

In July the EU states sounded alarm over Ukraine weapons smuggling, and Nato and EU members called for greater tracking of arms to curb re-export to Europe’s black market.

After nearly five full months since Russia launched its invasion, Olena Zelenska said that her country needed more Western weapons.
The Nato countries that preferred not to get involved in this war saw that they could not stand on the sidelines, however, and had to rush to Ukraine’s aid with war material. The billions of dollars in Western military assistance have been crucial for Ukraine’s efforts to fend off Russian attacks, but officials in Kyiv kept repeating the numbers are still too small to turn the tide of the war.

At the end of Jul, two sides of the invasion agreed ‘de facto ceasefire’ to allow cargo ships to collect millions of tonnes of grain from Ukrainian ports. After all, because cereal exports could not run smoothly, a lot of African countries got into such trouble that people went hungry.

U.N. spokesperson Farhan Haq said in a statement

“These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe.”

Even without directly using military force against countries outside Ukraine, Putin succeeded very well in harming lots of countries, not only in Europe but also in Africa and Asia. Blocking Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping made already the existing global food crisis worse. Even when the war will come to an end it shall take months to reach pre-war levels.

While the Belarusian politician Alexander Lukashenko encouraged and directly facilitated illegal migration, arranging for migrants to get to Minsk and be transported to the borders of Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, the migrants in the Russian-engineered wave were making their way to Europe on their own. Cooperating with Belarus, formerly known as Belorussia or White Russia, Putin could gloat at the chaos he could create in European countries. Indeed, this war in Ukraine has added another shock wave of refugees, in addition to the one Putin had already caused in Syria over the past few years.

Regarding those the Russian regime required to go and fight in its southern neighbouring country, Putin has chosen to recruit soldiers from areas far from the major cities and from minorities. When he somewhat later called for an entire mobilisation of the youth, many of the twentysomethings fled to neighbouring countries.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and French President Emmanuel Macron in July went each visiting several African countries whilst Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, went to Kenya and Somalia. The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, went to Ghana and Uganda.

“It’s like a new Cold War is playing out in Africa, where the rival sides are trying to gain influence,”

said William Gumede, director of Democracy Works, a foundation promoting good governance.

Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has been working to win support in Africa for several years, reinvigorating friendships that date back a half-century, when the Soviet Union backed many African movements fighting to end colonial rule.

Lavrov, in his travels across the continent where many countries are suffering drought and hunger, has sought to portray the West as the villain, blaming it for rising food prices, while the Western leaders have accused the Kremlin of cynically using food as a weapon and waging an imperial-style war of conquest — words calculated to appeal to listeners in post-colonial Africa.

Aftermath of the attack in Chaplyne

On the embattled country’s Independence Day Russian forces launched a rocket attack on a Ukrainian train station in Chaplyne, a town of about 3,500 people in the central Dnipropetrovsk region killing 25 people and wounding 50 people. The Russian defense ministry claimed it had targeted a military train using a single Iskander missile, and that the attack had killed 200 Ukrainian soldiers. But like many other so-so military targets, ordinary civilians were hit rather than military targets.

In August, Putin felt advised to shock the EU by simply wasting large volumes of natural gas by burning it in a huge orange flare near the Finnish border at a time when it has sharply cut deliveries to the EU. Rystad, an energy consultancy based in Norway, described Moscow’s move as an environmental disaster – with about 9,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide being emitted every 24 hours – and estimated the amount of gas being burned off into the atmosphere was equivalent to about 0.5 percent of daily EU needs.
The spectacular flare could be seen in satellite images of Portovaya, the site of a compressor station for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany. The EU accused it of using gas as a weapon to fight back against Western sanctions over Ukraine. In industrial plants, flare stacks are primarily used for burning off flammable gas released by safety valves during unplanned over-pressuring of plant equipment. Here there was no reason for flaring, there not being an over-pressure whilst the level was unusually high and the timing was sensitive because of the Russian supply cuts.

Besides using gas as a weapon, Russia turned its eyes to power plants in the second part of the year, not caring about carrying out very varied battles at nuclear power plants. Since August to late November, it became almost a daily occurrence how gunfire around the various nuclear power plants, like the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, struck fear into local residents but also made the West shudder at the possible consequences of a nuclear incident. The Russians also proved to have forgotten or not knowing what happened in 1986, when the Chernobyl disaster spewed radiation throughout the region, shocking the world and intensifying a global push away from nuclear energy. It also emerged that Russian soldiers had stayed in the high irradiation zone but also had to leave in a hurry because several soldiers had fallen seriously ill. In the different attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine and Russia kept accusing each other of shelling the wider region around the nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which was briefly knocked offline in the 4th week of August. The dangers were so high that officials had begun handing out anti-radiation iodine tablets to nearby residents.

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows bush fires outside of the main power plant facilities at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Russian occupied Ukraine, Monday Aug. 29, 2022. A team from the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Monday started its journey to the Zaporizhzhia atomic power plant at the heart of fighting in Ukraine, a long-awaited mission to inspect crucial safety systems that the world hopes will help avoid a catastrophe. (Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies via AP)

The head of the U.N. atomic watchdog called for the establishment of an immediate safety zone around the plant to prevent a nuclear accident. Because Russia is putting not only Ukraine, but also the entire world at threat at the risk of nuclear accident, more than once the world leaders have called on the Russians to demilitarise the plant, to no avail.

Worse, Vladimir Putin felt it was important to use threatening language, alluding that he would not shy away from using nuclear weapons if the West meddled too much in its “internal” affairs.

At the end of August Ukraine’s “long-anticipated” southern offensive was underway in the Kherson region, with a warning from the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that Russian soldiers should “run away if [they] want to survive”. And the last few months we could hear about several places where the Russians had left, leaving a lot of unused military material on the premisses.

While at the beginning of this nonsensical war Ukraine might have been willing to leave the southern part to the Russians, after the absurdly false referendum in September the will to annex all the territories that originally belonged to Ukraine returned. Now Ukraine wants to push Russian troops completely out of the country, including from the regions they occupied and annexed in 2014. The offensive in Kherson represented the beginning of that push. Whether it is as simple as that is debatable – but it’s a sign that Kyiv has seised the initiative from Moscow.

In September Russian troops were surrendering en masse as “they understand the hopelessness of their situation.” A Ukrainian presidential adviser said there were so many POWs that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.

Blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags fluttered over newly liberated towns across a wide swath of reclaimed land.

Though with the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson in the month of November even more noise of war crimes came to our ears. New evidence of gruesome atrocities against civilians has become visible. Though accusations of war crimes were brought to the world from both camps, sometimes with pictures to prove it. We can only hope investigating officers shall bring the truth above table.

We can be assured that certain leaders like Dmitri Utkin of the Wagner Group and  Chechen militia leader Ramzan Kadyrov allowed their troops to do things that cannot be condoned. They were allowed to ‘crush’ the Ukrainians in the name of the Russian leader and raze the country to the ground bringing potential actors, like rogue low-level occupation units, mid- to high-level military commanders, stealing food from the citizens, raping older but also very young women, torturing those who they could think of withholding necessary information.

We still need to know more about the organisations and commanders who are directing this campaign of deliberate atrocity against civilians in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s advances raised the stakes for Mr. Putin, but there still did not seem to come pressure unto Putin to stop this war. Just the opposite it looks like there are still some people around Putin who love to see Ukraine to become part of the Russian Federation. To reach that goal some of them even advice the use of chemical and tactical nuclear weapons. Rather than lose in humiliating fashion, Vladimir Putin may calculate the military benefits are worth the risks.

Mr Putin if he is thinking freezing temperatures in Ukraine will favour Russia is fundamentally wrong. Like the Russians, Ukrainians are accustomed to snow, ice and plunging temperatures. They know how to live and survive in it, as did the Finns when Stalin invaded in 1939 and was bested by a much smaller army in a freezing war for its territory. Both Russian and Ukrainian soldier may be acclimatised, the cold weather is not to be underestimated. It will hit them hard as frostbite threatens to cripple and kill. Shivering in a frozen dug-out or abandoned farmhouse with no prospect of respite from the weather can penetrate even the toughest soldier’s mind, and make him turn in on himself. It is then that hypothermia strikes, sometimes fatally.

As in World War II the Ukrainians are a people not to be underestimated. The Ukrainian soldiers are also better trained and more disciplined than the Russian invaders and therefore better able to cope. Whilst the Russian soldiers do not have so much rationing for survival, Ukraine’s men are mostly well-equipped, often with supplies sent in by its allies.

In November Putin’s generals pulled back from Kherson because they couldn’t keep their forces adequately supplied. Herein lies another critical difference between now and the wars when “General Winter” came to Russia’s aid:

this is a Russian offensive, not defensive, operation. Ukrainian targeting of Russian supply lines throughout has paid off, and will yield even greater dividends this winter as logistics become even more strained, with equipment failing and higher demand for fuel and food. {Winter won’t save Putin. It may end him – Richard Kemp}

On the 15th of November the European Council is launched the European Union Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) to continue supporting Ukraine against the ongoing Russian war of aggression. EUMAM Ukraine has a non-executive mandate to provide individual, collective and specialised training to up to 15 000 Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel over multiple locations in the territory of EU member states.

The Council also adopted an assistance measure under the European Peace Facility (EPF) worth €16 million to support the capacity building of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the EUMAM Ukraine. Both EUMAM Ukraine and the assistance measure were designed based on Ukraine’s operational requirements and will finance the provision by EU member states of: ammunition, military equipment and platforms designed to deliver lethal force transportation, custody and maintenance and repair of the equipment financed through the assistance measure.

Though the Verkhovna Rada has prolonged Ukraine’s martial law and mobilisation for the fifth time since the start of Russia’s all-out war, the president of Ukraine, on the 15th of November, told world leaders in a video address “now is the time” to end the Russian invasion in an address to the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.

“Every day of delay means new deaths of Ukrainians, new threats to the world, and an insane increase in losses due to continuation of the Russian aggression — losses for everyone in the world,”

said Zelensky, who also asked for a special tribunal into Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said Ukraine should make concessions to end the conflict with Russia and avoid a new war against Russia itself. But now that since the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, the Ukrainian camp seems to be on the winning side, Zelensky has no intention of making any concessions at all and even hopes to reclaim all the territories previously conquered and annexed to Russia and re-join a united Ukraine.

2022 coming closer to its end, with the war dragging on and the risk of escalation by Russia growing more likely, many are calling for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine — even if it means concessions from Ukraine.

2022 November 25

End November and all through December Russia’s terror campaign against Ukraine’s power plants was cutting off the lights—and energizing resistance.

Countries have been slow to sign the contracts companies need to boost supply to Kyiv and allies’ own readiness. But at the end of the year 2022 most people knew this could become a war that still shall be going on for a long time and in a way Nato providing military tools to fight their war against Putin over there up North, as that European nation Ukraine is fighting for its independence.

Economists working with the German government say that if Ukraine can shore up its finances through the end of next year, it is Russia that could find itself in financial trouble if a proposed oil price cap by the U.S., European Union and allies saps Moscow’s earnings.

December 4, the head of U.S. intelligence said fighting in Russia’s war in Ukraine was running at a “reduced tempo” and suggests Ukrainian forces could have brighter prospects in coming months.

A confidential opinion survey conducted by the Federal Protection Service, which is in charge of guarding the Kremlin and providing security to top government officials, found that 55% of respondents backed peace talks with Ukraine while 25% wanted the war to go on. The report didn’t mention the margin of error.

Levada Center, Russia’s top independent pollster, found in a similar poll carried out in November that 53% of respondents supported peace talks, 41% spoke in favour of continuing the fight, and 6% were undecided. It said that poll of 1,600 people had a margin of error of no more than 3.4%.

All through December, a game of propaganda war was waged by both sides, with each coming out with different death tolls and areas of conquest.

Ukraine has survived the onslaught of its brutal foe. It has humiliated the Russian army and regained much lost territory. These are huge achievements. But the war is not over and we should not forget the importance of Ukraine winning this war by being a bulwark against Russia.

The west needs to ensure that Ukraine survives. When the battle will be over the West shall have to come to help to reconstruct or rebuild the country.  This is not just a moral necessity, but it will be in our interest too. There has long been concern about the country’s corruption. But the way Ukraine has mobilised to fight this war shows that this is not the country we now see. A corrupt oligarchic state does not organise and fight as this one has. Ukraine deserves the benefit of the doubt. The present president clearly has shown he can handle this country in difficulties without aiming for the “bad guys”. He has proven that he nor his country do not need the previous corruption. He and the Ukrainian people have also shown they are willing to save their nation and live as a decent democratic union, seeking a life in the European Union. Though one-fifth of the population may have emigrated, most of them shall return to help rebuild their country. Ukraine has been remade in war. It will surely be remade in peace as well.

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Preceding

1. The world on the very brink of conflict
2. Putin plays dangerous poker game
3. A useless but very dangerous challenge game
4. Will Ukraine Escape Russian Domination?
5. Will the Russian War in Ukraine reset World diplomacy?
6. Shall skyrocketing energy prices bring down consumption

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